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Very well written and balanced piece Adam, well done. This section caught my eye:

"The conflicting challenge will be to understand the impact of these systems on less developed countries that may not yet be in a position to prioritize decarbonization. This tradeoff between decarbonization and the alleviation of energy poverty globally is incredibly complex and nuanced."

The fact that this tension exists belies the simplified claim that 'climate change means jobs', which gets banded around in mainstream discourse. Sure, jobs will be created building wind farms and decommissioning oil rigs. But what about existing jobs in poorer countries that export carbon-intensive manufactured goods to the EU? A 'just' energy transition must somehow protect or replace these, not cut the most vulnerable workers loose.

The points you make about the WTO exemptions are spot on, and that Bloomberg chart visualises the problem brilliantly. This all begs the question: Is there an historical example of border taxes leading to a unified global response to a common threat? I am not aware of one.

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