Canada's mandate to electrify its vehicle fleet.
the Plug #6 | On Electric Vehicles
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Today we're looking at Canada’s decision to ban the sale of emission-generating passenger vehicles by 2035.
For context, we’re also going to:
Analyze transportation emissions within Canada. 🍁
Check-in on the state of electric vehicles globally. 🚙
Discuss why clean electricity is equally important. ⚡
Electrifying Canada's Vehicle Fleet 🍁
Last week, Canada’s Federal government announced that by 2035, there will be no more fossil-fuel-burning cars or light trucks sold in Canada.
But that decision should not come as a surprise.
The U.K. announced similar plans in late 2020, although with an earlier phase-out date of 2030. Norway has been even more aggressive, targeting 100% electric vehicle (EV) sales domestically by 2025.
The intention behind Canada’s announcement is simple – to meet the objectives it set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. More specifically, to reduce Canada’s carbon emissions.
It’s worth asking why they decided to start by targeting transportation?
Transport Sector Emissions
In 2018, Canada’s transportation sector generated ~38% of the country’s total CO2 emissions. Nearly 80% of those emissions were from cars, trucks, motorcycles, and buses.
And all those vehicles? Well, they run on either gasoline or diesel.
Decarbonizing Canada’s economy will require a multi-faceted approach, and reducing CO2 emissions in the Industrial sector, for example, will also be important.
But today, we’re only focused on Transportation.
So let’s break this down further. The chart below shows two time periods:
The evolution of North American CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2019. Said differently, how we got here.
What North America’s emissions trajectory looks like from now until 2050 (the date that Canada has set to achieve net-zero emissions). Or, a best guess at where we’re going.
As you can see, decarbonizing our transportation sector is critical to meet that emission target. And electrifying our vehicle fleet will be a major key to success.
Unfortunately, we in the North haven't really fallen in love with EVs just yet. In Q3 2020, only ~3.7% of vehicles sold in Canada were zero-emission.
Which is why Trudeau’s legislative kick in the ass makes sense. Canada’s Federal Government deserves credit for coming to this decision. Electrifying Canada’s vehicle fleet will help distinguish the Canucks as a leader in the fight against climate change.
And let’s face it – from the standpoint of public perception, mandating a transition to electric vehicles is just a liiitttle bit sexier than cracking down on the fertilizer, paper, or cement industries.
Maybe that’s why Canada is prioritizing Transportation.
The State of EVs Globally 🚙
Both within Canada, and globally, it’s important to be realistic about the speed of EV adoption. Because this transition will not happen overnight.
More likely, it'll take several decades. It will also require a combination of regulations and incentives to motivate the transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles.
There has been huge progress made in the electric vehicle space over the past two decades. But internal combustion engines (ICEs) have been around for over a century, and therefore have a massive head start.
Over the next decade, but probably for longer, fossil fuels will remain the bedrock of our transportation system.
An Electric Skol
And now, over to Europe, where the Scandinavians currently lead the world in EV adoption.
Norway, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland are amongst the top-5 countries for electric vehicle penetration. Hong Kong rounds out that list at number four.
What enabled the Vikings to jump ahead of the rest of the world?
These countries have three factors in common: small populations, tiny landmass, and a healthy GDP per capita. Those factors facilitated the build-out of a robust network of EV charging stations: a necessary gating item for people to feel confident that their EVs won’t run out of juice mid-drive.
While the infrastructure for refuelling gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles is well established (they’re called gas stations), EV charging is still a work in process.
Building out charging infrastructure will be one of several challenges inhibiting the mass adoption of EVs. But fortunately for Canadians, our European counterparts have already proven it’s possible.
Now it’s our turn to play catch up.
The Importance of Clean Electricity ⚡
Before we start championing electric vehicles, it's worth asking the question – do EVs generate less CO2 emissions than gasoline-powered alternatives?
The carbon footprint of EVs is a bit more complicated than ICEs. While fossil-fuel-burning vehicles produce emissions as they're driven, EVs are different. They may not be generating emissions during your morning commute.
But the electricity generation process is a different story entirely.
Not all electricity is created equal. For example, electricity generated from coal has a much heavier carbon footprint than solar panels or wind turbines.
The analysis above is referred to as "cradle to grave". The goal of which is to quantify the full scope of lifetime CO2 emissions: from manufacturing to usage, to end-of-life disposal.
But what takeaways can we draw from this chart?
If your Tesla runs on coal-generated electricity, its lifecycle emissions are pretty much the same as a gasoline-powered Toyota Corolla.
A Tesla running solely on renewable energy produces next to no emissions during its time on the road. There are, however, emissions generated while it’s being built, and also some post-mortem when it needs to be recycled.
The U.S. electrical grid draws power from a variety of energy sources. And so, the carbon footprint of a Tesla driving around in the U.S. is somewhere between 100% renewable electricity and 100% coal.
The chart above represents the estimate from one single source. While I believe it’s directionally accurate, there are other sources that disagree with this analysis and emphasize instead that the emissions from EVs are more similar to ICEs than most would think.
The devil is in the details, or rather, in the handful of assumptions needed to make these calculations.
All that to say that EVs aren’t all sunshine and rainbows. They come with challenges of their own, including the complexities of recycling lithium-ion batteries, the carbon footprint of building EV charging stations, and the need for clean electricity.
These challenges will all need to be addressed sooner rather than later.
But in addressing them, there will be rewards. Namely, a significant reduction in Canadian CO2 emissions.
Coal Won’t Cut It
Electric vehicles alone won’t materially reduce the transportation sector’s emissions. Transitioning away from carbon-intensive energy sources, like coal, is equally as important.
To drive home the importance of clean energy, let’s check in with the American electricity grid. In 2017, there were six U.S. states where coal produced over 50% of the electricity consumed.
If you live in West Virginia, Missouri or Kentucky, it doesn’t matter how good your intentions are in buying a Tesla.
Without clean electricity, we may as well keep pumping gasoline into our cars.
Want to learn more about EVs? 📖
Here are four great articles to read if you’re interested in learning more about electric vehicles, and the challenges we will face as they grow more prominent.
CO2 Emissions: Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment? (WSJ)
Recycling: Electric cars: What will happen to all the dead batteries? (BBC)
Electric Trucks: Stop Worrying and Love the F-150 Lightning (The Atlantic)
Gasoline: A Dry Pipeline Asks: Who Wants an Electric Car Now? (Bloomberg)