Defunding Lumberjacks, More Natural Disasters & the Death of Keystone XL
the Plug #3
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This week’s edition has three sections: 2 photos, 2 charts, and 1 cartoon.
Each section also stands alone, so you don’t have to read it all.
Read time: ~8-10 minutes
Two Photos
1) Defund the Lumberjacks
Forestry is often criticized for lacking sustainability. I can understand a lot of that criticism. But not all of it.
Setting aside the pros and cons of forestry for today, I’m going to talk about my feelings instead.
Each year, the population of old-growth trees in my home province of British Columbia decreases. The fact that we are pushing these trees to the brink of extinction makes me sad.
If you don’t live in BC, don’t worry! This is probably happening where you live, also.
Yep, that’s the same tree.
The photos above were taken on Vancouver Island, off the coast of BC. While it’s tough to pinpoint the age of that tree, it was likely over 200 years old. It’s also possible that it was up to 2,000 years old.
James Cook and George Vancouver first arrived on Vancouver Island in 1778 and 1792, respectively. That tree was probably already there.
Fortunately, you can do something about it!
The Endangered Ecosystem Alliance, a Canadian non-profit co-founded by TJ Watt, has set up an automated email (linked here) that goes out to 20+ Canadian politicians.
I can almost guarantee that this course of action will be a more productive outlet for your concern than posting your criticism on Instagram.
Note: If you do decide to send that email, be aware that you will get a bunch of automated emails in response. It’s easy to delete them, but I figured the heads up would be nice.
Two Charts
1) Natural disasters don’t care if you believe in climate change
“Climate change” is both complicated and controversial.
As I understand it, “climate” is a function of the prevailing weather conditions over a long period of time. Given that no one can definitively tell me what tomorrow’s weather will look like, I’d say that’s complicated. And controversial? Well, you need to look no further than U.S. polling data to reach that conclusion.
So, let’s make it simpler.
One of the unfortunate outcomes of our climate here on planet earth is that it generates natural disasters. Winter storms, wildfires, floods, and a litany of other violent weather events.
The impact of natural disasters is quantifiable, meaning it shows up in numbers. This chart highlights three sets of numbers: disasters, deaths, and dollars.
The trend lines here are pretty clear: up and to the right.
We are now one year into the current decade. In 2020, the U.S. spent ~US$95bn repairing damage from natural disasters. If you extrapolate this to the rest of this decade, you get ~$950bn of environmental damages. By that same logic, there will be ~220 natural disasters and ~2,600 deaths in the years 2020 through 2029.
I don’t see any reason why the trend lines above will change direction. And so, I have two takeaways:
Looking at the quantifiable impact of our changing climate, instead of climate change itself, might be a less controversial way to address climate change.
Without implementing material changes in the systems embedded in our society, the disasters, deaths and dollars will continue to rise. We should probably set our expectations accordingly.
2) At least Keystone XL Is now dead
Last week, on June 9th, the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline was finally abandoned. KXL was initially proposed way back in 2008, which makes the project ~13 years old.
KXL’s goal was simple - to eliminate a bottleneck in the supply chain which delivers crude oil from Canada’s oil sands to American refineries. Those refineries are where Canadian oil gets processed into things we can use (i.e. gasoline, jet fuel, etc.).
In the last decade, KXL became more than just a pipeline. It became a symbol for North American energy policy.
At KXL’s funeral, people will describe it as both a waste of time and a waste of money. That legacy was the point behind U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw support from the pipeline earlier this year.
To any company considering a similar project in future, use KXL as a case study. Save your money. Save your time. And recognize that there will be no more oil pipelines built in the U.S. under a Democratic administration.
The abandonment of the KXL pipeline is symbolic. But in reality, it won’t have any material impact on oil consumption in the near term.
People still need oil. And so, it will continue to flow.
Just not through KXL.
One Cartoon (Finally)
In spite of his decision to kill KXL, U.S. President Joe Biden recently announced that he was lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Once operational, that pipeline will connect Russia’s domestic gas supply with demand in Europe, more specifically in Germany.
But drawing a parallel between Biden’s handling of KXL in North America, and Nord Stream 2 in Europe, is an apple to orange comparison. For starters, Nord Stream 2 has nothing to do with the U.S. (admittedly, this hasn’t stopped ‘Murica before).
American resistance to the pipeline would also be futile. For starters, the project is now over 90% complete. And American objection would certainly piss off ze Germans.
What I find most perplexing is the torrent of criticism directed at President Biden for his decision to withdraw these sanctions. The cartoon below effectively captures that sentiment.
